The most talked about and approved package across the Yankee blog world is one consisting of Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and perhaps Austin Jackson.
There is also obviously going to be a lot of money given to Santana. First, let’s look at what the Yankees would be getting.
Basic Statistics
|
Year
|
Age
|
|
Team
|
G
|
W
|
L
|
IP
|
TBF
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
R
|
ER
|
BB
|
K
|
ERA
|
RA9
|
2004
|
25
|
MLB
|
Minn
|
34
|
20
|
6
|
228.0
|
880
|
156
|
|
|
24
|
70
|
66
|
54
|
265
|
2.61
|
2.76
|
2005
|
26
|
MLB
|
Minn
|
33
|
16
|
7
|
231.2
|
904
|
180
|
|
|
22
|
77
|
74
|
45
|
238
|
2.87
|
2.99
|
2006
|
27
|
MLB
|
Minn
|
34
|
19
|
6
|
233.2
|
923
|
186
|
39
|
5
|
24
|
79
|
72
|
47
|
245
|
2.77
|
3.04
|
2007
|
28
|
MLB
|
Minn
|
33
|
15
|
13
|
219.0
|
878
|
183
|
40
|
4
|
33
|
88
|
81
|
52
|
235
|
3.33
|
3.62
|
Extended Statistics
|
Year
|
Age
|
|
Team
|
BB/PA
|
K/PA
|
BABIP
|
GB%
|
HR/Air
|
FIP
|
BsRA9
|
2004
|
25
|
MLB
|
Minnesota
|
6.1%
|
30.1%
|
.270
|
|
|
3.07
|
|
2005
|
26
|
MLB
|
Minnesota
|
5.0%
|
26.3%
|
.289
|
|
|
2.96
|
|
2006
|
27
|
MLB
|
Minnesota
|
5.1%
|
26.5%
|
.273
|
43%
|
7%
|
3.09
|
3.16
|
2007
|
28
|
MLB
|
Minnesota
|
5.9%
|
26.8%
|
.275
|
40%
|
9%
|
3.89
|
3.93
|
It’s tough to argue with the assertion that he has been the best pitcher in baseball over this four year set, and that the Yankees would be much better off with him on the team.
We have never heard anything about a ceiling of Yankee spending for this offseason, but we learned when Carlos Beltran went to Queens that there was, at least in the minds of the Yankees, a limit. That was a situation (although not quite comparable) in which a star hitter had to be left to the side because Randy Johnson was on his way into town. On a side note, that contract for Beltran isn’t turning out looking half bad.
If Santana gets this contract from the Yankees, the Yankees may be staring at a rather glaring hole at 1B after next year that they can’t fill with Mark Teixeira. Regardless of that’s the specific costs, theoretically the Yankees will be constrained in their purchase of other free agents down the road. However, these are the Yankees, and a lot of money (Giambi, Farnsworth, Pavano, Pettitte, Mussina) will be coming off the books after next year. Therefore, the potential cost of not being able to sign a Teixeira or a Bedard may well be not worth discussing.
It’s nice rooting for the Yankees, though I think most Yankee fans would agree that it’s not really fair we can sit here and dream of Johan Santana in pinstripes while Brewers fans are forced to get their kicks looking at Jason Kendall in a Pittsburgh Pirates uniform (you know, when he used to be good)
Some other things to consider – baseball revenue is growing like wildfire – they just topped 6 billion dollars a year, and it figures to only keep growing. This escalating total amount of money in baseball is gradually being filtered back to the players. Thus, Beltran’s contract may end up being an extremely prudent signing, and pitchers that are barely league average get $8+ million annually begins to make more and more sense. I am not sure exactly how the numbers translate, but if baseball revenue has grown 50% in the last few years then it makes sense that a Kyle Lohse, whom we would think is worth about $5-6M annually, suddenly becomes worth $8-9 M annually. Thus, where a previous contract for Santana might have made sense at $14M just three years ago, now maybe it makes more sense to think in terms of $21M annually.
The Yankees pay more than other teams, not only because they’re the Yankees, but because New York costs more to live in. I remember hearing Cashman mention that such a reason was part of the reason for the difference in Damon’s offers from the Red Sox and the Yankees.
The Yankees will have to give up a 1st Round Pick if they sign Santana as a free agent after ’08. This is generally overrated as a cost, but is still something to consider, and should help to mollify some of the unhappiness about the players that are given up in exchange for Santana.
Pros:
Johan Santana pitches for the Yankees….
Having a pitcher of Santana’s caliber relieves the burden at the back of the rotation because Santana would ultimately take the position of the Yankees worst SP, whoever that ends up being.
Finally, these are my thoughts on the feature players the Yankees figure to be giving up.
Losing Ian Kennedy:
Although most Yankee fans are more than willing to part with him, Kennedy was the minor league pitcher of the year and could very well be one of the upper tier of pitchers in the American League in three years. He could also be the next Brandon Claussen.
Losing Phil Hughes:
From everything I have ever read about Phil Hughes, it seems clear that this is a move that should not be made. Just last year he was the #1 pitching prospect in all of baseball, and not a lot happened last year that has led me to any different conclusions. I do, however, think that Rob Neyer’s point here is pretty solid.
Adam (NYC): It’s hard to believe that Santana will win another 100 games though…wouldn’t Hughes have a better chance of reaching that mark than a 29 year old pitcher past his prime? If the Yanks sign Santana to a 10 year extension, they’d be paying Santana $20 million a year at age 39…at the same time Hughes would be entering the prime of his career. Can you say Kevin Brown? Not a very wise business move to say the least.
SportsNation Rob Neyer: Adam, here’s a chance for some research. Go back and make a list of 20 pitching prospects with Hughes’ credentials. Then make a list of 20 pitchers with Santana’s credentials. I’ll bet you the Santana comps won more games afterward than the Hughes comps did.
Doug (NY): A little research; according to BA, the top pitching prospects since 1990: S.Avery, T.Van Poppell, B.Taylor, Bere, J.Baldwin, B.Pulsipher, P.Wilson, K.Wood, R.White, R.Ankiel, R.Anderson, J.Beckett, M.Prior, J.Foppert, E.Jackson, F.Hernandez, Liriano. It’s too early to tell on some of them (King Felix for example), but other than Beckett, not really a list of HOFers
SportsNation Rob Neyer: Exactly. Thank you for doing what I couldn’t do. Granted, Hughes has done more than Van Poppel or Taylor or some of those other guys had done at his age. But the point still holds, I think.
Losing Melky Cabrera:
For a man who ranked 2nd to last amongst CFers in the +/- system and went .273/.327/.391 in ’07, I can’t say I’d be too upset to have him go. He’s young, he could one day be a good regular, and he’s got a piss of an arm. However, the thought of a Damon/Matsui/Abreu/Duncan OF isn’t much different IMO than if Melky’s in that mix. I will, however, miss periodically seeing a cannon explosion go off in CF. Seems to me most Yankee fans agree that losing Melky wouldn’t be such a big deal.
Losing Action Jackson:
I think I differ from a lot of other Yankee fans on this. Clearly Jackson has had a breakout season and in so doing has vaulted himself to the front of all Yankee prospect discussions. I, for one, was astonished when Baseball Prospectus’ Bryan Smith ranked AJax ahead of Wieters in Hawaii. Wieters, if anyone doesn’t know, was the 5th overall pick in the draft this year – a power hitting switch hitting catcher who gets positive enough reviews on defense that it looks like he’ll be able to stay behind the plate. Kevin Goldstein of BP ranked Wieters as a 5-Star Prospect, meaning that Smith puts Jackson in that same category, even if Goldstein does not. In other words, Jackson’s pretty good.
Where I disagree, however, is that Jackson is a long way away from the bigs most likely – his numbers were put up in high A and in the HWBL. And, while many Yankee fans are comparing AJax’s HWB showing to Joba Chamberlain’s last year, the comparison seems far fetched. Joba was head and shoulders above that league, putting up about a 40/3 K/BB ratio. Jackson was amazing, but nowhere near that level of success.
There are still many things that have to go right in order for Jackson to pan out, and none of those are certainties. He may well be at the peak of his value right now, and trading him now may be a sell high opportunity. I think that back in 1995, none of us would’ve traded Ruben Rivera either. Ruben was the #3 prospect in baseball (ahead of Jeter) according to BA and was just off a monstrous season at AAA at the age of 21.
Trading prospects is generally unsound. But this is Johan Santana, and he’s not coming to the Yankees for Brian Bruney and a bag of baseballs.
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