The Yankees are still arguably the best offensive team in baseball. Contrary to all the reports coming out of Detroit, Miguel Cabrera’s VORP of 71.4, while 74.7 runs greater than Brandon Inge’s -3.3, is still not enough of a difference to make up for the 81 runs that the Yankees outscored Detroit by last year, even accounting for the 1.9% difference (which would actually be .95% of runs) in park factor between Yankee Stadium and Comerica Park.
That said, it is easy to argue that the Yankees lineup could be a heck of a lot better given their current situation at first base. Some combination of Shelley Duncan, Wilson Betemit, Morgan Ensberg and Jason Lane is not very likely to yield anything better than league average, and is in fact quite likely to be in the lower third of 1B production in MLB. So, what alternatives, if any, do the Yankees have, acknowledging that any solution is likely to come after the current season?
There is always Mark Teixeira. Teixeira, currently playing 1B for the Bravos of ATL, will be a free agent after next year, at the age of 28. According to Baseball Prospectus’ MORP tool (which puts dollar values on a player’s performance over replacement level), Tex projects to be worth about $20M a year through 2011. However, although the numbers after ‘11 aren’t available, one can easily project the beginning of a string of slight season to season declines in value from thereon out, given that Tex will be 31 by the end of that season. So, if you’re the Yankees, giving Tex the 7 year, $20M plus contract he’s likely to command is not exactly a sure thing, although it probably will end up being the best move available. If you’re going to give out that epic kind of contract, Tex is the kind of player you do it for. He’s a position player with elite production who has a solid history of health and won’t even be 30 when he signs on the dotted line.
Let’s have some fun with this though – let’s imagine the Yankees suddenly have to fall back into the middle of the pack in payroll (I don’t know, maybe global warming happens a lot faster than everybody thinks possible, and Manhattan is 70% underwater in 2009, thereby making New York a mid-size market). What would the Yankees do about 1B if they didn’t have more money than God? Well, one solution which would seem to work for both parties involved would be the acquisition of Matt LaPorta from the Brewers. LaPorta, as you will see from his stats in college and his time in the minors last year, is an absolute monster with the bat. However, despite starting out his college career as a catcher, and spending time working out in the outfield and at third, LaPorta’s defensive inabilities relegated him to being a full-time first baseman. So, when he was drafted by the Brewers, it left some people scratching their heads. Prince Fielder, after all, isn’t exactly moving to shortstop. The Brewers intend to play LaPorta in a corner outfield position, which again could prove to be a problem because of Ryan Braun and Corey Hart, two very talented young hitters currently occupying those positions for the big club. Unless Hart would move back to center, or Braun back to third, the Brewers won’t have a position for LaPorta.
Enter the suddenly financially limited Yankees. With the Yankees plentiful quantity of young pitching, and the Brewers sudden glut of hitters, perhaps both clubs could find a way to work out a deal. LaPorta can’t even be traded until June 2008, but that’s no reason not to play armchair GM.
Filed under: Uncategorized
